2022 Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win, and What Should Win

Which team would you most like to see next weekend with Oscars wrapped around their shoulders? Are you Team DuneYou or your Team Don’t Look Up? What do you believe? The Power of the DogOr the power and might of the Saab Bardem or Benedict? Chastain or Colman? Are you hoping to sing? “When you’re a Jet”When the Best Director envelope has been opened, “We are the ‘Campions’”?

The process of predicting the Oscars is always one part tea-leaf reading, one part pattern recognition and one part personal fandom — there are compelling narratives that come and go during the long campaign season leading up to that glamorous evening at the Dolby Theatre. In a flash, frontrunners and dark horses may switch places. What’s favored one week may find itself out in the cold the next. By this point, after many of the other awards shows, various guilds and other predictors have weighed in, it’s pretty clear who’s looking good and who’s a long shot leading up to next Sunday. For a complete listing of films, actors, directors, etc., click here. Click here to view the full list.

These are our predictions as to who will most likely go home with the little gold men. should win; and who we’d love to see win in the six top-tier categories. We’ve studied the trades, crunched the numbers and consulted a host of different mediums and psychics — so consider the following to be some highly educated guesstimations.

BEST PICTURE
First things first: We’d like to state for the record that we’re ecstatic that Drive My CarOur favorite movie from last year is up for Best Picture. Even if Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s drama about grief, art and connection does not win the grand prize, the fact that it managed to find a place among the 10 nominees — and thus become part of a larger conversation, involving a far bigger audience than you would expect for a three-hour Japanese film — counts as a huge victory in our book. Ditto Hamaguchi scoring a Best Director nomination. We will be cheering it on when it wins Best International Feature.

However, at the moment, it seems like there is a three-way race between horses. Belfast, The Power of the Dog CODA. Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical look back at a childhood interrupted by the Troubles felt like a sure thing when it first started screening back in September; it had the exact combination of pedigree, chops, sentimentality (but not too much sentimentality) and gravitas that screamed Oscar-winner. A few months later, Jane Campion’s rage-and-repression-fueled Western began enticing folks While angering othersIt felt like it was moving forward. From a Montana ranch to a Hollywood podium, it seemed that all roads led to the same place. Then the Screen Actors Guild awards happened ….

What is the winning strategy?
CODA
It wasn’t surprising that this story of a working-class New England child of deaf adults who dreams of being a singer won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance; it really does feel like it’s three or four Sundance movies all rolled into one. Once Apple picked it up, filmmaker Sian Heder’s drama felt destined to become a modest, word-of-mouth hit and that was that. It was surprising to see its name among the Oscar nominees for this category. But it felt like it fit a specific slot: The small indie (with big patron saint) who could.

It was almost as if voters started to pay more attention the charming underdog of a candidate after the SAG Awards gave them the Best Ensemble award. It was clear that the pendulum was beginning to swing. And given what’s happening around the world right now, you could also see why voters might view “feel-good”It’s a boon, not a burden. This film won the big prize from the Producer Guild of America last night. CODAIt suddenly felt as if it had moved several notches. While the PGAs and the Oscars haven’t always been simpatico (the organization gave their 2020 prize to 1917; The Oscars went to with Parasite), it’s still more of an awards-season bellwether than most. We see this happening now, whether we are hesitant or not.

What is the Best Way to Win?
The Power of the Dog
Campion’s first movie in 12 years is both epic and intimate, a film that feels like a classic Western even as it turns the notion of frontier masculinity on its ear and uses its literary source material as a jumping-off point. It’s a gorgeous, substantial work of art, cerebral without being chilly (at least we were moved by it) and a great example of capital-C Cinema that’s accessible yet challenging. It couldn’t be more deserving.

What We’d Love to See Win
Licorice Pizza
You cowards, give Paul Thomas Anderson an Oscar!

BEST ACTOR
You’ve got a previous Oscar winner doing Shakespeare; one half of a modern showbiz couple playing one half of a legendary showbiz couple; a beloved young actor playing a gamechanging playwright, in a musical directed by another gamechanging playwright; one of the last movie stars left standing who gets incredibly jiggy with a paternal biopic role; and a British actor playing an American archetype (in a film shot in New Zealand). It’s around-the-world-in-a-day with category.

Who will Win?
Will Smith King Richard
Smith was awarded the BAFTA Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA awards for his role as Richard Williams, father of tennis champions Venus Williams and Serena Williams. King RichardIt suggests that people actually saw King Richard and felt it went by way too fast last year. Despite the fact that there have been many misses, they still love Will Smith. Smith does great work in this movie, and it feels like it is tailored to his strengths. He’s been nominated twice before, for Ali(should win) The pursuit of happinessGTF outta there, and this could be the year he wins it. You can add your own tennis-related pun.

Who should win?
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Cumberbatch dominated most of the critics’ group awards, and his layered, complex portrayal of one very complicated cowpoke feels unlike anything else he’s ever done (compare his work here to what he’s doing in the previous film he was nominated for, The Imitation Game and it’s like you’re watching an entirely different actor). He’s both perfectly in harmony with his costars and the overall mood of Campion’s drama, while also feeling like he’s lifting the movie up a few pegs every time he’s onscreen. You don’t have to be Bronco Henry to recognize it’s the best performance of the year, period.

Who We’d Love to See Win
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
In which the star turns the Bard’s cursed, power-hungry monarch into a classic Denzel Washington character — and still makes it feel like Shakespeare. He’s puttin’ cases on all you witches! King Kong ain’t got shit on Mac-B!

BEST ACTRESS
For a long time, this category felt like a wild card — everyone assumed Lady Gaga was a shoo-in to get nominated (she wasn’t), that Kristen Stewart was outta luck when it came to the final round of nominees (she wasn’t), and that Nicole Kidman and Jessica Chastain’s prosthetics-heavy performances as real-life famous ladies were likely to be overlooked (they weren’t). One of those actors mentioned above seems to be a latex-covered, padded head and shoulders above her competitors.

Who will win?
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
The irony is as thick as the mascara in Michael Showalter’s biopic on former-televangelist-slash-disgraced-wife-slash-LGBTQ-icon Tammy Faye Baker, but the performance by Chastain — from spiritually hungry young woman to fallen angel — couldn’t be more sincere. It’s provides a faint heartbeat amid the sound and fury here, and while it’s tempting to to focus on the metric ton of prosthetics being applied to her mug during Ms. Baker’s later-years edition, remember: Chastain still has to act underneath all that goop. And she does. Even though the film is not perfect, it’s still amazing. Like with CODASmith, the SAG award helped Smith gain momentum FayeTake, and consider the overlap between these two voting bodies. Chastain might be singing praises for more than the Lord on Sunday.

Who should win?
Penelope Cruz Parallel Mothers
Talk about an outstanding performance! It both impresses and wreaks havoc on the first viewing and then adds depth and tragedy after the second. Cruz has long done her most outstanding work with Spanish auteur extraordinaire Pedro Almodovar — the first of her four Oscar nominations to date was for his 2007 movie Volver,She should have been nominated for the 2009 Nobel Prize in Literature. Glory and pain — and what she’s doing in this tale of two matriarchs (and a country finally able to grieve its lost children) deserves recognition. Particularly, the engraved, baldheaded, and gold kind.

Who We’d Love to See Win
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Mothers: Colman has been nominated twice in the past three years, and she won once. But she’s amazing in this. She’s amazing in everything. We can go back and nominate her in previous years, then reward her retroactively for those roles.

BEST SUPPORTING ATOR
There were more than a few surprises when this category’s nominees were announced, from the inclusion of a breakout star to the addition of a great actor in a so-so movie (we love you, J.K. Simmons, but wtf?). Both The Power of the Dog‘s players who made the cut had more than earned their right to be here, though we’re wondering if they end up canceling each other out — that said, both Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee can now put “Oscar-nominated actor”So there you have it. And damned if a Celtic character actor didn’t just level up as well.

Who will Win?
Troy Kotsur, CODA
It’s an ensemble movie, and spreads the love between its young protagonist, her earthy family and her cranky-yet-lovable music teacher. But it pays to remember that the Supporting Actor categories are where the Academy feels its safe to reward eccentric and outré portrayals, scene-stealing turns and memorable “smaller”Performances that are best-in-show standouts. (Think Joe Pesci in Goodfellas, Heath Ledge in The Dark KnightKevin Kline Wanda the Fish … the list goes on.) And that’s Troy Kotusr in a nutshell here. His paternally concerned, perpetually horny fisherman pops into the picture CODAThis is a minor miracle, but it’s also incredibly soulful. The scene in which his father listens to his daughter’s music and vibrates to make it seem like he wants to turn on the tap re: your tear-ducts is the highlight of the movie.

Who should win?
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Yes, there is no dispute.

Who We’d Love to See Win
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
We’ve been a fan of this veteran Irish actor since we first spotted him in the HBO series Rome way back in 2005; he’s the sort of reliable journeyman that made you go “Oh, it’s that guy, ok!” every time he’d show up in a bit part. His affectionate grandfather in Branagh’s Belfast gets a handful of scenes that might get trotted out as Hinds’ “and the nominees are—” clip. Each adds texture and color to this piece. It’s a perfect example of how a supporting part should work.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tonight could be a historic night for this category. In 1962, the Academy presented Rita Moreno with the Best Supporting Actress Award. She played Anita in the role. West Side Story — and now the 2022 version of Anita finds herself nominated as well. She is in good company alongside a British Dame Judi Dench and a young talent Jessie Buckley. TwoThe clutch players are undoubtedly exceptional performers with years of experience (Aunjanue Ellsworth and Kirsten Dought). This is one of few big, all-killer-no filler categories.

Who will Win?
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Imagine you accepted an iconic role in movie musical history, one that requires you’re a top-notch singer and dancer and actor, then had to perform that role across from the person Who defined it for generations of moviegoers?It won an Oscar! Then imagine that you now only knocked the whole thing out of the proverbial part, but added your personal, subtle grace notes and sense of pride and rage to it, this completely making it a starmaking turn that’s all your own. You are very welcome, Ms. DeBose. After winning the BAFTA, the Golden Globe and the SAG award for Anita, you’re about to add one more statue to the pile.

Who should win?
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
[To the tune of “America”] Give Ar-i-an-a the Os-car/She is this year’s wi-nn-er by-yyy far/Dances so fierce but’s ea-sy on the ear/Cor-o-nate what will be a long caaaa-reeeeeer!

Who We’d Love to See Win
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
You are probably aware of where we are at the moment.

BEST DIRECTOR
You mean Spielberg? PTA. Kenneth Branagh for his best film in years. Jane Campion for her first movie in more than a dozen years. Ryusuke Haguchi, who already had his world-cinema title “master filmmaker” status and can now say he’s been blessed by Hollywood, USA as well. We’d note there are few other filmmakers we’d love to see in here as well (del Toro and Villeneuve, for starters) but there’s nobody we’d kick out, either. The talent of the directors here is amazing.

Who will Win?
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
From its opening shots of riders on an unforgiving range to its last-gasp climax, there isn’t a false not that’s struck in this screen version of Thomas Savage’s novel. There will be a wealth of footage that shows a skilled filmmaker with only a few shots that make you swoon. We’ve always loved Campion’s work, yet it’s not hard to feel like so much of her back catalog was leading up to this one film. And she would be third female director to take home the Best Directing Oscar, a fact that’s certainly worth noting but that should not take away from the idea that her work here constitutes the best marshaling of forces toward realizing the a single vision — the best “direction” — of the year.

Who should win?
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Jane, take it home and tell homophobic haters where it can be stuck.

Who We’d Love to See Win
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Still angry about that There will be bloodAfter all these years, loss.