Fantasy football is a game of strategy, but the best strategies are built on detailed analysis of relevant data. From drafting to in-season management, advanced statistics and trends can help you make smarter and more informed decisions for your team.
In this blog post, we’ll delve into nine key statistical analysis and trends that every fantasy football enthusiast should know to gain an edge in their leagues. So if you’re ready to take your game to the next level, let’s get started!
PPR (Points Per Reception) vs. Standard Scoring Formats
There are two main scoring formats used in fantasy football: standard and PPR (Points Per Reception). PPR leagues award additional points to players for each reception, making some positions more valuable than others. It’s important to understand which format your league uses and how to adjust your drafting strategy accordingly.
In PPR leagues, for example, running backs who are involved in passing plays may be more valuable than in standard leagues. Understanding this trend is essential to helping you win in the long run.
Catching the Touchdown Frenzy
In the NFL, touchdown numbers can be unpredictable and volatile. However, looking at touchdown volume over the last few years can help shed light on which players are more likely to score and which ones might regress.
When it comes to red-zone performance, both receiver height and the quality of the quarterback throwing the ball can factor into who emerges as a touchdown specialist. As some leagues offer bonus points for touchdowns, knowing who will score can help your team rack up points.
Target Volume = Receptions, Yards, and Touchdowns
A consistent trend in NFL football is that players who receive more targets from their quarterbacks are likely to have more receptions, yards, and touchdowns. The more times a player is targeted, the more chances they have to catch the ball and make an impact in the game. Following target volume trends throughout the year can help you predict player performance and make informed decisions.
Running Back Targets and Efficiency
In the past, NFL running backs were primarily used for running plays. But in recent years, many have become key contributors to their teams’ passing game as well. Running backs who can break off big plays as receivers are increasing in value, making it important to identify high-usage and high-efficiency running backs in a complex passing and running game strategy. Understanding running back usage and efficiency, with an emphasis on prolific receiving backs, can set you up for success.
High Draft Picks = High Usage
While there are always surprises in the NFL, including the odd breakout player or undrafted free agent stealing reps, high draft picks tend to receive more playing time and opportunities to contribute.
Top draft selections are often given every opportunity to succeed and prove their worth, making them prime targets for fantasy drafts. Make sure to keep an eye on team situations and follow NFL news to stay fully informed about a player’s draft position and draft strategy.
Look for a High Opportunity Share
Opportunity shares reflect how often a player is on the field, which plays they are involved in, and in which game situations they are utilized. Understanding these opportunity shares for NFL teams and players can help you identify which players will be more involved in the game, and therefore have more chances to contribute during fantasy games.
Early-Season Usage and Performance
It’s important to pay close attention to data from the start of the season as in-season stats drive fantasy wins or losses. During the first few weeks of the season, players and teams are still finding their form, so making roster decisions based on early-season stats needs to be done with caution.
Still, major trends can emerge early like quarterback players injuries, or lead back competition. Looking at early trends early on can allow you to make better-informed decisions go-forward.
Home Games versus Away Games Leveraging Location into your Drafting Strategy
Theres a significant and noticeable difference between a home game and an away game. While the exact reason is not fully known, teams seem to play more efficiently when they are at home, making players in-home games more valuable than away games.
Ways in which one can leverage this information include the drafting and starting of more favorable positional players during home games. This is particularly useful when making go-forward decisions for daily fantasy NFL games.
Rest of Season Strength of Schedule (ROS SOS)
Finally, analyzing the strength of schedule for matches yet to come is incredibly important for making roster decisions each week as well as go-forward decisions. Being able to gauge which defensive teams opposing players will play could allow you to take advantage of defenses that fear otherwise strong players.
Incorporating strength of schedule in your fantasy analysis can help you make smarter roster decisions and make informed trades, particularly late in the season.
Conclusion
Fantasy football is a game of skill, luck, and strategy. By leveraging these nine trends and advanced statistics, fantasy enthusiasts can stay ahead of the curve with informed decisions. Whether you’re in a PPR or standard league, playing daily fantasy NFL games or managing a season-long team, these insights are designed to help you make the best possible decisions for your team. Keep these statistical analysis and trends at the forefront of your fantasy football analysis and you’ll be ahead of the gamAs always make sure to keep an eye on NFL news, injuries, depth charts among other relevant aspects to stay informed throughout the year.
