The year was nearly two years ago. First confirmed Cases involving Covid-19 Before scientists could understand how SARS-CoV-2 infected and affected humans, the first signs of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States were numbers. We were able to see the scale of the pandemic from national and state statistics. These included the number of deaths, new Covid-19 cases, and hospitalizations.
Some of the first Covid-19-positive people began talking publicly about their long-lasting symptoms in spring 2020. Two weeksPublic health experts stated that this was the normal duration of infection. Since then, they — along with Millions more Americans are estimated to be involved living with Long Covid — have been met with disbelief from family members, employers, and the medical profession, and constant requests to prove that they are legitimately sick.
Because numbers have been integral to people’s understanding of the severity of the pandemic since it began, it’s not surprising that Long Covid skeptics often ask questions about how many people “actually”What percentage of people with Covid-19 develop Long Covid?
These questions are being answered by statistics at the moment. Most of these statistics indicate that there is a gap between 10 30%Many people who receive Covid-19 end-up with Long Covid. But these are only estimates emerging from academic research and referenced in news coverage — not the kind of population-level data that exists for other conditions, and that people expect to be readily available for Long Covid. In reality, these statistics are likely to be years away.
It took a long time to come up with the definitive Long Covid statistics. This is also why current estimates are often misunderstood. Long Covid still needs to be defined. While the vague, broad definitions of Long Covid from organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) World Health OrganizationAlthough the WHO recognized Long Covid as a valid medical condition, they were only a first step. In reality, Long Covid includes many patients with very different symptoms, experiences, outcomes, and even outcomes.
Here’s what to keep in mind about the current numbers — including why estimates range so widely — as well as what needs to be done in order to get population-level statistics.
Long Covid StatisticsThe kind of results that people are able to expect from large-scale scientific studies by the National Institutes of HealthIt is a method that follows a group of people for a long time. Natalie Lambert, PhDA biostatistician and associate professor of biostatistics, health data sciences and biostatistics at Indiana University of School of Medicine. In this case, she says, that would involve enrolling participants when they test positive for Covid-19 and keeping track of their health long after — even if they don’t immediately develop Long Covid. “That’s the gold standard, but those tests take a very long time,”Lambert shares his story Rolling Stone.
As new research on Long Covid is published, it’s important to keep in mind that the studies were conducted with the populations and knowledge that were available at a particular time — and not necessarily with the aim of coming up with national Long Covid statistics. Early on, physicians and researchers were trying to learn whatever they could about this new type of post-viral illness, and at times, that meant working with a narrow sample of participants — like ones who had been hospitalized, for example.
“But that’s leaving out the majority of people [with Long Covid] who don’t end up in the hospital,” Lambert explains. “We could try to do better by trying to follow up with people who went to their primary care provider and seeing how many of them became long-haulers, but most of them aren’t going to the doctor.”
Even though the current definitions are very broad, it was much more precise than what existed before. “counted”Long Covid is a popular choice among researchers, patients, and medical professionals. “Long Covid means different things to different people,”Jaime Seltzer, director for medical and scientific outreach #MEAction, an advocacy organization for people living with myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) — including the Estimated 10-12 percent of Long Covid users Who will get the condition? “Studies are measuring Long Covid at different intervals and capturing different populations within Long Covid, which may explain the discrepancy in the statistics.”
Seltzer states that, for example, a study that includes large numbers of hospitalized patients may miss a subset of patients with post-intensive syndrome. Or, data gathered soon after a person’s acute Covid-19 infection may identify people with post-viral fatigue that is recoverable, while missing people who develop ME/CFS months later.
Lambert estimates it will take years for accurate and reliable population data on Long Covid. However, he points out that “the more funding there is, and the more researchers that can be involved, the faster we’ll have the answers.”Her first point is that Long Covid must first be defined.
The pandemic is now almost a year old. David C. Lee, MDThe new patients were being seen in the NYU Langone Health’s emergency department. The symptoms included chest pain and shortness of breath, abdominal pain, and one or more abnormal skin conditions. They either got worse or continued to get worse after taking Covid-19. Lee, who is an assistant professor at NYU School of Medicine’s School of Medicine, noticed that in the early 2021, this was what stood out most. “the overwhelming majority of patients had already seen several doctors, often including multiple specialists,”He says it. Rolling Stone.
Treating Long Covid patients who came to the ER, Lee also saw that the chronic condition isn’t equally debilitating for everyone. “There is varying severity of these persistent symptoms from person-to-person,”He explains. “Some people are completely disabled and have been sick since 2020, but then there are a lot of people who don’t have it as badly.”
And while the lack of a clear definition of Long Covid makes getting accurate statistics a challenge, Lee points out that’s to be expected when dealing with an illness that’s been around for fewer than two years, and isn’t something that should be rushed. “For a new condition like Long Covid, we need to be careful about deciding what it is or isn’t before we have all the evidence worked out,”He said.
For context, see the WHO’s definition of Long Covid (announced in October 2021) — which the organization refers to as “Post-Covid-19 Condition” — notes that it typically begins around three months after the onset of a Covid-19 infection, lasts at least two months, and can’t be explained by another diagnosis. While the symptoms may be mild, they can also be severe. CDC It also provides a similar introduction to Long Covid and identifies three types “post-Covid conditions”Symptoms that are new or continuing; multi-organ effects from Covid-19; and the effects of Covid-19 hospitalization or illness.
Long Covid should be broken You can break it down into categories, rather than approaching it as a catch-all condition, is an important (and necessary) step towards defining the condition — ultimately, getting closer to accurate Long Covid statistics — it has yet to be seen whether this will change the underwhelming approach the CDC and governmentIt has been a long journey.
Lambert was a partnerWith Survivor CorpsIn April 2020, a support group online for Long Covid patients was established. When she began to research Long Covid with her colleagues, she had to basically start from scratch. “At the very beginning, we were interested in talking to people that had Covid, and two months later still had not recovered,”She explains. “We asked them about their symptoms to get a basic understanding. However, not recovering from something isn’t a good definition of a disease.”
Lambert is a biostatistician and knows this well. “To do a rigorous scientific study where you’re studying a population of people who have a disease, you first have to define the population,”She explains. “And you can’t say how many people have Long Covid unless you know that whatever sample of people you ask about their recovery or non-recovery after infection is representative of everyone who got Covid.”
In order to identify someone who has a disease (as well as someone who doesn’t), scientists first need to fully understand that condition, its characteristics, and the mechanisms of how it occurs, Lambert says. But much of the research into the various symptoms that can continue or begin after a Covid-19 infection is either underway, or has yet to start — meaning that the deep understanding of Long Covid necessary to define it is still a way off. But for now, Long Covid is best divided into categories such as the ones below. ResearchersYou can find it here ProposedThe CDC lists and other resources can provide a better understanding of the condition and how it affects individuals.
And unlike many diseases, there’s no clear signal, like a diagnostic lab test, that is seen as sufficient evidence that a person has Long Covid. Plus, as Seltzer explains, when there aren’t clear diagnostic tools and/or adequate medical knowledge on a condition, “stigma takes a stranglehold on moving the field forward,”She notes. “Instead of medical providers showing uncertainty, they misdiagnose the patient as having a psychiatric disorder like depression, anxiety or conversion disorder, or dismiss the patient entirely as attention-seeking.”
As Lambert points out, this is a good thing. “our cultural mindset about health is that we have to prove we’re sick,”Long Covid is not well-known so it can be difficult to convince people of its existence.
Long Covid has a problem with numbers — but not necessarily the one most people think. If you have been following the path and trying to gauge the severity of the Covid-19 epidemic through daily reports of new cases and infection rates in your area, it may prove frustrating or even easy to dismiss the condition.
What if the problem is partly due to the excessive weight of Long Covid numbers and the widespread belief that population-level statistics are the only valid way to not only study a condition but also prove its existence?
“I think we need to go to the other end of the spectrum, talking directly with as many patients as possible to learn about their range of experiences in detail, and using that [knowledge] to help inform clinical studies,”Lambert elaborates, pointing out that this would ensure that researchers are asking relevant questions as well as taking into account factors like stress levels and the environment. “There are many different fields of research that do incredible work that is valid and trustworthy, and many methods of inquiry that can find really important patterns about the world that are very useful to us. And we need all hands on deck.”
This isn’t to say that having accurate, reliable Long Covid statistics resulting from robust, longitudinal clinical studies isn’t important. But a lack of these numbers shouldn’t be used as an excuse not to take Long Covid — and the people living with the condition — seriously.
“At the end of the day, we need to listen to patients better, help them in the ways that we can, and keep searching for better treatment options,”Lee “Each person affected [by Long Covid] is meaningful, and maybe the statistics don’t matter as much as the individuals do.”