Variety This section includes all award news and related content throughout 2018. It also contains the following: The official predictions for next year Oscars, Emmys, GrammysTonyAwards ceremonies, curated and organized by Variety Clayton Davis is senior awards editor. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Each category can change as is any other organization that votes. Every Thursday, predictions are updated.
LAST UPDATED: Oct. 1, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress
Viola Davis “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
Sony
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Danielle Deadwyler secures her spot in the top actress race “Till,”This film premiered on Saturday at the New York Film Festival. Mamie Till-Mobley is the star of the film. “The Harder They Fall” (2021) delivers one of the year’s single best performances, by any person, bar none. Orion and United Artists Releasing must ensure the film is seen by the public and that Deadwyler (and film) are given the respect they deserve. It would be a crime to allow a turn like this to pass the voters.
Michelle Williams’ work as the piano-playing mother in Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans”Will be running for the Oscars in best actor, rather than supporting as some pundits speculated. This is a big problem for both supporting and lead actresses.
Williams has been nominated for four Academy Awards – “Brokeback Mountain” (2005) and Manchester by the Sea” (2016) in supporting actress and “Blue Valentine”(2010) “My Week with Marilyn”(2011) as the lead actress. Undoubtedly overdue, she’ll face tougher competition with Cate Blanchett’s Volpi Cup-winning turn in Todd Field’s “TÁR” and Michelle Yeoh’s acclaimed work in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
There have been many roles that can go either direction between supporting and lead. Glenn Close lost to Olivia Colman for her Oscar.“The Wife”Lady Gaga (“A Star is Born”For more information, please visit: “The Favourite”(2018) – Anne Hathaway still managed to surpass Kate Winslet (2018“Rachel Getting Married”) and Meryl Streep (“Doubt”) when she was switched by the Academy from supporting to lead for “The Reader” (2008). Winslet was a supporter of the switcharoo and had received the Golden Globes and SAG awards. Williams may be inspired by their success.
Let’s not forget the box-office performance of “The Woman King”Viola Davis, Oscar-winner (“Fences”) in the thick of it once again, potentially becoming the second woman, to be recognized as a producer and acting in the same year. Frances McDormand was first. “Nomadland”(2020), won both the best picture and actress categories. Davis was also in that lineup. “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
Ana de Armas, cover of Variety This week, it could overpower the mixed reception “Blonde” while it’s always foolish to count out someone as noteworthy as Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”Margot Robbie (“Babylon”).
We’ll also see if the Academy is “cool” enough to see the merits of the incredible Taylor Russell from Luca Guadgnino’s “Bones & All.”
All 23 film categories are represented here. Variety’s Oscars Collective.
You can view the ranked predictions in each category by visiting Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS & RANKINGS:
These are the Predicted Nominees
Rank
Name
Film
Distributor
1
Michelle Yeoh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
A Chinese immigrant aging in China is caught up in an incredible adventure where she can save the world. She explores other universes and connects with the lives she could have lived.
2
Cate Blanchett
“TÁR”
Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. Considered one of the most important living composer/conductors and the first-ever female chief orchestra conductor for a major German orchestra, Tar was widely celebrated.
3
Danielle Deadwyler
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
The life of Emmett Louis Till, and the legacy of his mother, who pursued justice to her son’s death.
4
Viola Davis
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
This historical epic is inspired by true events that took place in The Kingdom Of Dahomey, one the most powerful African states in the 18th century and 19th centuries.
5
Michelle Williams
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
Next in Line
6
Olivia Colman
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light”The story of a romantic love story is set around a beautiful old cinema in South Coast England in 1980s.
7
Zar Amir Ebrahimi
“Holy Spider”
Utopia
An Iranian journalist descends into Mashhad’s dark underbelly to investigate the serial killings by the so-called “sex workers” “Spider Killer”He claims he is cleansing sinners’ streets.
8
Ana de Armas
“Blonde”
Netflix
An imaginary chronicle of Marilyn Monroe’s inner world.
9
Emma Thompson
“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”
Searchlight Pictures
Nancy Stokes, a 55-year-old widow, is yearning for some adventure, human connection and some sex–some good sex.
10
Margot Robbie*
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters.
Other Top-Tier Candidates
11
Taylor Russell
“Bones & All”
Amazon Studios
12
Rooney Mara*
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
13
Zoe Kazan*
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
14
Jennifer Lawrence
“Causeway”
A24/Apple Original Films
15
Vicky Krieps
“Corsage”
IFC Films
16
Carey Mulligan*
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
17
Naomi Ackie
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”
Sony Pictures
18
Jessica Chastain
“The Good Nurse”
Netflix
19
Florence Pugh
“The Wonder”
Netflix
20
Sally Hawkins
“The Lost King”
IFC Films
Also in Contention
21
Mia Goth
“Pearl”
A24
22
Anna Diop
“Nanny”
Amazon Studios
23
Léa Seydoux
“One Fine Morning”
Sony Pictures Classics
24
Emma Corrin
“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”
Netflix
25
Thandiwe Newton
“God’s Country”
IFC Films
26
Elizabeth Banks
“Call Jane”
Attractions on the Road
27
Tang Wei
“Decision to Leave”
Mubi
28
Bella Ramsey
“Catherine Called Birdy”
Amazon Studios
29
Charibi Dean
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
30
Haley Lu Richardson
“Montana Story”
Bleecker Street
Other awards possibilities
31
Zoe Saldaña
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
32
Florence Pugh
“Don’t Worry Darling”
Warner Bros.
33
Nathalie Issa
“The Swimmers”
Netflix
34
Margot Robbie*
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
35
Julia Roberts
“Ticket to Paradise”
Universal Pictures
36
Penélope Cruz
“Official Competition”
IFC Films
37
Keke Palmer*
“Nope”
Universal Pictures
38
Greta Gerwig*
“White Noise”
Netflix
39
Rebecca Hall
“Resurrection”
IFC Films
40
Tilda Swinton
“Three Thousand Years of Longing”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
Unranked Possible Contenders
—
Amandla Stenberg
“Bodies Bodies Bodies”
A24
—
Ana de Armas
“Blonde”
Netflix
—
Anamaria Vartolomei
“Happening”
IFC Films
—
Anna Kendrick
“Alice, Darling”
Lionsgate
—
Anya Taylor-Joy*
“The Menu”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Anya Taylor-Joy*
“The Northman”
Focus Features
—
Ariel Donoghue
“Blueback”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Aubrey Plaza
“Emily the Criminal”
Attractions on the Road
—
Bella Ramsey
“Catherine Called Birdy”
Amazon Studios
—
Bérénice Bejo
“The Hummingbird”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Carey Mulligan*
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
—
Cate Blanchett
“TÁR”
Focus Features
—
Charibi Dean
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
—
Da’Vine Joy Randolph
“On the Come Up”
Paramount Pictures
—
Dakota Johnson
“Am I OK?”
HBO Max
—
Dakota Johnson
“Persuasion”
Netflix
—
Dakota Johnson*
“Cha Cha Real Smooth”
Apple Original Films
—
Danielle Deadwyler
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
—
Dianna Agron
“As They Made Us”
Quiver
—
Elizabeth Banks
“Call Jane”
Attractions on the Road
—
Elizabeth Olsen*
“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”
Marvel Studios
—
Emily Browning
“Monica”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Emma Corrin
“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”
Netflix
—
Emma Corrin*
“My Policeman”
Amazon Studios
—
Emma Thompson
“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”
Hulu/Searchlight Pictures
—
Florence Pugh
“The Wonder”
Netflix
—
Florence Pugh
“Don’t Worry Darling”
Warner Bros
—
Greta Gerwig*
“White Noise”
Netflix
—
Haley Lu Richardson
“Montana Story”
Bleecker Street
—
Jane Fonda
“Moving On”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Janelle Monáe
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
—
Jennifer Lawrence
“Causeway”
A24/Apple Original Films
—
Jenny Slate
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
A24
—
Jessica Chastain
“The Good Nurse”
Netflix
—
Jessica Chastain*
“The Forgiven”
Attractions on the Road
—
Jessie Buckley
“Men”
A24
—
Jodie Turner-Smith
“After Yang”
A24
—
Julia Roberts
“Ticket to Paradise”
Universal Pictures
—
Juliette Binoche
“Both Sides of the Blade”
IFC Films
—
Kate Beckinsale
“Prisoner’s Daughter”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Keke Palmer*
“Nope”
Universal Pictures
—
Léa Seydoux
“One Fine Morning”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Léa Seydoux*
“Crimes of the Future”
Neon
—
Lesley Manville
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
Focus Features
—
Letitia Wright*
“The Silent Twins”
Focus Features
—
Letitia Wright*
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Lily James
“What’s Love Got to Do With It?”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Lily Tomlin
“Moving On”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Manal Issa
“The Swimmers”
Netflix
—
Margaret Qualley
“Stars at Noon”
A24
—
Margot Robbie
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Margot Robbie
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
—
Mia Goth
“Pearl”
A24
—
Michelle Williams*
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
—
Michelle Yeoh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
—
Naomi Ackie
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”
Sony Pictures
—
Natalie Portman*
“Thor: Love and Thunder”
Marvel Studios
—
Nathalie Issa
“The Swimmers”
Netflix
—
Olivia Colman
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Penélope Cruz
“Official Competition”
IFC Films
—
Regina Hall
“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul”
Universal Pictures
—
Regina Hall
“Master”
Amazon Studios
—
Rooney Mara*
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Sally Hawkins
“The Lost King”
IFC Films
—
Sandra Drzymalska
“EO”
Janus Films and Sideshow
—
Saoirse Ronan*
“See How They Run”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Sara Serraiocco
“Il Signore Delle Formiche”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Sigourney Weber
“The Good House”
Roadside Attractions/Lionsgate
—
Tamara Lawrance*
“The Silent Twins”
Focus Features
—
Tang Wei
“Decision to Leave”
Mubi
—
Taylor Russell
“Bones & All”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Tessa Thompson
“The Listener”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Thandiwe Newton
“God’s Country”
IFC Films
—
Tilda Swinton
“Three Thousand Years of Longing”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Vicky Krieps
“Corsage”
IFC Films
—
Viola Davis
“The Woman King”
TriStar Pictures
—
Virginie Efira
“Paris Memories”
Pathé
—
Zar Amir Ebrahimi
“Holy Spider”
Utopia
—
Zoe Kazan*
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
—
Zoe Saldaña
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
Predictions of 2023 Academy Awards
MAKEUP | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
Category winner in 2022: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s Leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series – A deep dive into particular categories led by the top pundits.
