It’s estimated that 55 million Americans will travel over the Thanksgiving holiday. That’s the highest level since the pandemic began and the third-highest since AAA began tracking the holiday in 2000.
However, Covid cases are steadily increasing nationally. The most recent 24-hour count was 111,386 According to John’s Hopkins. That’s the highest number of new infections in a day since August 12. Experts suspect that this number may be even higher because of the rise in home tests. Some regions have higher numbers than others.
In the two most recent weeks, there has been an overall increase of 7% in new cases per day for the national average over seven days. Per The New York Times. The number of test positives has increased by 5% to 8.6% over that same period. There are also hotspots that indicate infection, which trend higher.
Michigan’s 14-day average number of cases is up 104%, per the Times, while its test positivity sits at 11%. Arizona’s average daily cases are up 82% in the past two weeks. The state’s rate of test positive is staggeringly 24%. In the same time frame, hospitalizations have increased 53%. To put it in perspective, Arizona’s current positive rate is greater than ever before during the hard-hit California pandemic.
Speaking of which, the Golden State’s daily average number new cases over two weeks is up 48%, while its average test positivity is 6%, according to the Times. California’s largest metropolis, which accounts for one-quarter of the state’s population, is seeing steeper increases.
Los Angeles County Health officials released 3,077 Coivid new cases on Wednesday. That’s the highest one-day number since mid-August during the summer wave. L.A.’s seven-day average daily rate of people testing positive for the virus has also continued an upward climb, reaching 9.4% as of Wednesday. That’s up from 6.5% a week ago, according to the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. Over the last week, the average number of COVID-related infections in Los Angeles County has been 1,971 per person. This is 39% more than the previous week.
Today, 800 county residents were hospitalized for Covid. The latest state data show that the figure has increased to 822. That’s up from 666 one week ago, a 23% increase in seven days.
These aren’t good trends for December holiday.
Health officials are most concerned about hospitalizations because if healthcare facilities become overwhelmed, the death rate rises. Although hospitalizations tend to be delayed by two weeks due to jumps in case numbers, Covid-related hospitalizations have increased significantly in Los Angeles. Hospitalizations will likely follow the trend of rising cases well into December, with more than 2,000 new ones.
You may also encounter other factors that can complicate matters.
The persistent spread of flu and respiratory syncytial virus — or RSV — in the county is combining with Covid to present a triple threat of respiratory illnesses which will likely further stress heathcare facilities.
You can also travel and host holiday events, but they are generally more expensive. “normal” — i.e. maskless — this year. Couple that with the rapid rise of the BQ1 & BQ1.1 variants, which have in a matter of weeks displaced the long-dominant BA.5 and now account for more than half of new cases in the region, and infections could continue to rise for some time.
China remains the final wild card.
“China reported record high COVID-19 infections on Thursday, with cities nationwide imposing localized lockdowns, mass testing and other curbs,” reported Reuters.
Most of the country has been impacted by China’s so-called zero-Covid policy. It will open its doors to a vast number of individuals who are not yet infected and will expose them to any new variant. This could result in a surge in infections throughout the Middle Kingdom, as well as new variants, if there are so many.
City News Service contributed this report.