THE Prime Minister announced his Winter plan to keep Covid at bay yesterday.
Britain is currently in a positive position in fighting the virus. Despite the fact that there are still many cases, deaths are relatively low and vaccines are working.
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But there are a number of factors – or “pivot points” – that could see the country plunged back into lockdown, with stricter restrictions brought back in.
As we move into the cooler months, there are three key things that will make or break the PM’s plan to keep rules as lax as they are…
Hospital admissions
The Government laid out it’s Plan A, which largely relies on the vaccines.
In just days, children aged 12 and over can get one doses of Covid vaccine. The rollout of booster jabs to over-50s will begin.
This should be sufficient to stop the spread of the pandemic in the winter months.
If the NHS is again overwhelmed by demands, Plan B will be quickly deployed.
It is unclear what the criteria for this plan are, nor how serious it would require. However, the most likely explanation would be an increase in Covid inpatients.
Every winter, the NHS has to deal with common respiratory illnesses. However, this year they could speed up the turnaround and bring hospitals to full capacity.
Flu and other viruses were kept under control last winter due to Covid, the predominant virus in the country, and everyone being locked down.
This year, however, we will be able to mix more freely and there won’t be any social distancing during the winter.
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This means medics will be faced with both Covid and the classic winter illnesses, which will be back with a bang.
The number of Covid patients in hospitals has risen to 7 per cent over six weeks.
The pattern of increasing or decreasing in number is not likely to change. While it will undoubtedly put pressure on the NHS it shouldn’t be overwhelming and necessitating lockdown.
Uncertainty over Covid infections
Covid cases are relatively high at the moment still – but haven’t risen despite social distancing being scrapped and a highly contagious variant.
Many people are returning to work and schools are back.
People are now allowed to hug and don’t have any legal requirement to wear masks. They also don’t have the obligation to keep their distance.
It’s not clear what will happen as cooler weather approaches. People will be more likely to mix indoors, which could lead to an increase in spread of infectious diseases.
All these changes together could cause an increase in infection rates, which would be a problem.
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However the vaccines are very successful at preventing serious illness, and the majority of the country has now got immunity from the jabs.
However, older adults who were vaccinated at the start of the year are experiencing less immunity.
Even though children are less likely to become seriously ill and are more likely to spread the virus, they are still not vaccinated. They will be soon.
Five million adults have not received a single dose of vaccine. This is the key group that needs to be protected.
Plan B is required as immunity cannot stop the spread of infection and increases hospital admissions.
Other viruses…
Covid is the most serious threat, but normal winter viruses will return.
Because we have not been exposed to influenza viruses as much over the last year, our immunity will be lower.
RSV, a virus that is already in high numbers, will cause some children to lose their immunity.
It is the most common reason that children under five are admitted to hospital with respiratory illness.
If flu follows the same pattern, the number of patients going onto wards with respiratory viruses could top Covid, more than 750-a-day.
Prof Dame Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, told the BBC conditions are “ripe” for this.
She said the Government needs to find a way to “maximise risk reduction while minimising the impacts on our lives”.
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