A baker’s dozen of different Hollywood guilds have now made their choices for the best film accomplishments of 2021, culminating this week with a day in which the Producers Guild, Writers Guild and Directors Guild all announced their nominations within a few hours of each other.
The Oscar race was pretty much the same as it was before the guilds began announcing nominations.
“Belfast?” Check. “The Power of the Dog?” Yep. “West Side Story,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” “CODA,” “Dune,” “Don’t Look Up”? It sure looks like that.
Yes, the guilds did put a dent in a few films’ chances. We are sorry about that. “Spider-Man: No Way Home”And “No Time to Die.” You deserve better, “C’mon C’mon”And “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”
But there were no dramatic changes when awards season shifted from critics, journalistsAnd academics to film professionals, except among those who thought that rave reviews and critics’ awards for “Drive My Car” and “Spencer”These films would gain some real traction in this race.
And if the guild awards narrowed the field a bit and shone a spotlight on a handful of contenders, they didn’t anoint a real front runner, because every film came out of the guilds with a dent or two.
If there’s a grand slam of film awards on the road to Oscars, it consists of landing nominations in the top film categories at the Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild, and also getting an ensemble-cast nomination from the Screen Actors Guild. No film managed to do all four of these things this year.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” and Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story”All four groups nominated them, but the SAG nominations for their individual actors were not for their ensembles. Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” got a SAG ensemble nominationAnd followed with noms from the PGA and DGA, but it wasn’t eligible for a WGA nomination because of guild rules limiting eligibility to screenplays written under their jurisdiction. And Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” was also disqualified from the WGA Awards – and although it received three individual SAG nominations, the most of any film, it somehow failed to get an ensemble nod.
Still, “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog”They were nominated to win every guild award that they were eligible for and the American Cinema Editors’ crucial prize for film-editing. This puts them at the very top of the list. “West Side Story”And maybe “Licorice Pizza” (though the fact that the latter film’s sole SAG nomination came for Bradley Cooper’s extended cameo is hardly a show of strength).
Then you’ve got to come to terms with Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune,” which wasn’t nominated for any SAG Awards unless you include the stunt category. It won the table with twelve nominations from all other guilds or professional societies, including three more than “West Side Story” managed. There’s not much recent precedent for a big movie like this winning the top Oscar, but a hefty chunk of the Academy consists of below-the-line craftspeople, and “Dune”Probably belongs in the top five
But if those are the top five, what are the next five for the Best Picture category – which, after all, is back to a guaranteed 10 nominees? These five films were nominated by SAG and PGA. The DGA missed the nominations, but it had a strong quintet including Anderson, Branagh and Campion. It was a tough club to crash. Those five are Aaron Sorkin’s “Being the Ricardos,” Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up,” Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard,” Sian Heder’s “CODA” and Lin-Manuel Miranda’s “tick, tick…BOOM!”
It’s conceivable those five films will complete the Best Picture category, but history suggests not: Since the Academy and the PGA expanded their slate of nominees, the two bodies have never matched exactly.
“Being the Ricardos” was the closest thing to a surprise on the PGA lineup – and if there’s a difference between that guild and the Oscar voters, it could be the most vulnerable film. Andrew Garfield is a sure bet. “tick, tick…BOOM!” but the film itself isn’t a slam dunk to give the slate of nominees a second musical alongside “West Side Story.” (It’s not unprecedented for two musicals to be nominated for Best Picture in the same year – but unless you count “Bohemian Rhapsody”And “A Star Is Born” as musicals, it hasn’t happened since 1968.)
It seems more probable that “Don’t Look Up,” “CODA”And “King Richard”These films, all of which have SAG ensemble nominations, are among the most safe in that group of five. “Ricardos”And “tick, tick”Will join a group consisting of many films competing for the final two spots.
Others in that group are Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley” (SAG and WGA, plus five more craft nominations), Joel Coen’s “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (which could have enough passionate fans to benefit from the Academy’s ranked-choice voting system), Ridley Scott’s “House of Gucci” (divisive isn’t necessarily bad in this system), Pedro Almodóvar’s “Parallel Mothers” (which would get a big boost if Penélope Cruz lands the Best Actress nomination she richly deserves) and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “Drive My Car” (but only if the Academy’s increasingly large international contingent really flexes its muscles, which seems unlikely).
And then there’s the year’s one true blockbuster, “Spider-Man: No Way Home,”It seemed to be building a lot of goodwill as an entertaining film that brought people back to the theaters. But its failure to receive a PGA nomination doesn’t bode well for its Oscar chances; if the producers didn’t embrace a $1.7 billion hit, who will? The touching film is still being shown. “No Time to Die,” the capper to Daniel Craig’s career as James Bond, seems to have lost momentum since its opening in the fall.
Conspicuously missing in action: Pablo Larrain’s “Spencer,”After its Venice Film Festival premiere, it was praised as a stunning slow-burn gem which would propel Kristen Stewart to a certain Best Actress nomination and likely win. The critics loved it but the guilds were not kind: Jonny Greenwood picked up a Society of Composers and Lyricists nomination for his score, but otherwise it has been completely shut out, with Stewart a shocking casualty as SAG’s biggest snub. Oscar voters can still rally behind it before polls close on Feb. 1, but so far we haven’t seen any evidence that they will.
Here we are, I believe, post-guilds.
Top 10
“Belfast” (Focus Features)
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
“West Side Story” (20Th Century)
“Licorice Pizza” (MGM)
“Dune” (Warner Bros.)
“King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
“Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
“CODA” (Apple)
“tick, tick…BOOM!” (Netflix)
“Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight)
Next 5
“Being the Ricardos” (Amazon)
“The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Apple)
“Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Sony)
“Parallel Mothers” (Sony Classics)
“House of Gucci” (MGM)