Updated, Sunday AM writethru After Saturday AM update, refresh chart and more analysis: The wearing down of the MCU luster is unfortunately being seen, as Disney’s Thor: Love and Thunderis having a great fall, with a -68% drop for a second weekend that’s $46M. While the Taika Waititi-directed movie improved beyond its high $130M estimates last weekend into the $144M range, it’s clear those sour audience exits of a B+ CinemaScore and 3 1/2 stars are taking their toll.
Thor‘s second weekend drop ranks among the MCU’The worst of them all, including Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness(-67%) Black Widow (-68%). Forget about Spider-Man has no way home‘s -68% second drop. That’This is largely due Christmas and everyone knows that Sony/MCU title was making a lot of money on a daily basis. It’s an outlier.
Disney has a different brag around the worldThor: Love and Thunderand that’s that that the superhero is about to cross the Worldwide, half a billion. Domestic stands at $233.2M, global at $498M. The pic’s Imax screens stateside at 412 posted $3.7M this weekend for a running total of $20.5M.
Marvel is being defeated this summer by Tom Cruise’s film, which was granted a long-awaited sequel from his fans. Maverick is the Top Gun Set to stand $617.9MToday’s EOD. The erosion here in MCU box office bucks and audience exits is a rich man’s problem for the studio. Again, is the dilution of results because they’re stretched thin between the development of streaming series and movies?
Anecdotally, Thor 4 is quite a fun ride, and if you see it in Screen X, it’s mind-blowing. It’s a fast clip at 1 hour and 58 minutes, and not as Byzantine as Doctor Strange 2 Eternals. But clearly, something isn’t resonating with fans. I’ve been told by sources that they, and critics, obviously don’t think it’s as good as Ragnarok.Despite having a smaller opening than this pic Thor 4 With a net income of $122.7M, the second weekend was worth $57M. This was November and not summer.
Meanwhile, Sony/3000 Pictures/Hello Sunshine’s feature take of the Delia Owens novel, Where the Crawdads SingIt is ahead of its $9M-10M projections $17M In 3rd. A small win here for a $24 million production before P&A. According to some estimates, the movie could reach $17M. With 4 1/2 stars and 87% positive reviews, 70% of PostTrak recommends it, and an A CinemaScore, the 74%-skewing female movie is winning over its core audiences. Those fans who showed up clearly didn’t read reviews, as critics weren’t won over by the 35% Rotten.
RelishMix, a social media monitor, noticed that pre-release social chatter was not as popular. “spun around the book, as savvy fans wonder how the movie would play with the compression of the story into a two-hour film — and the tone of the trailer in relation to how they experienced the ‘lyrical, and haunting, but oddly peaceful story’ of the novel. The added layer of the Taylor Swift soundtrack, which was released two weeks ago, is also as a fresh element for fans, too.”
PostTrak found that 32% attended with someone they wanted to see the book, while 30% came because they loved it.
These audience exits are very promising considering that if the book had been really upset, it would have resulted in a lot of resentful fans. CrawdadsIt would be in freefall at box office.Crawdad‘s social media awareness levels are running in line with drama thriller norms at 156.5M across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok. “However, the bonus factor feeding activity on the project is soundtrack artist Taylor Swift, with her social network of 431.3M fans, including her YouTube channel at 46.8M subs — plus producer Reese Witherspoon at 34.8M fans — at a social grand total of 587.8M,”RelishMix.
Fifty-five per centCrawdads‘ ticket buyers are women over 25. The overall audience was 40% between 18-34, but still an amazing 41% over 45. Box office firm EntTelligence shows that 8% of the audience came after 8PM to seeCrawdads,indicating how older-leaning the pic is. Diversity demos were 71% Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 4% Black, & 8% Asian/other. Crawdadscrooned the loudest in the South and Midwest, where all of the top ten grossing theaters were. Pic’s best markets included Dallas, Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Tampa, Nashville, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Austin, cities which largely aren’t typically your highest-grossing cities in a given weekend. Only two New York City and LA runs made it into the top 75. Crawdad‘s top ten, with NYC Lincoln Square charting at No. 11 through Friday and LA’The Grove, No. 20.
On the downside, Paramount’s animated featureThe Legend of Hank: Paws of Furyisn’t punching with a $6.25M opening. If you want to know where families want to spend their money, it’s on the third weekend of Universal/Illumination Entertainment’sMinions: Rise of Gru This is what is driving up the price of everything. $26MSecond place: -44% for a running total $262.5M.
Why is this?Fury PawsIn a crowded summer marketplace? Not later in the autumn, when product is scarce? Paramount was not expecting the same from other industry players. Rise of GruThis much power is impossible to overcome. It felt safe to open in a two-week period. Fury PawsThis release date was before Warner Bros. decided not to pushBlack AdamIt was originally placed at the end of the month.DC League of Super-PetsIt is currently on track to make around $30M. Initial thinking was that Paws of Fury Before Super-Pets’ Dating, would be the rest of summer.
Reduce the appeal Fury PawsIt feels too similar in a movie about animal martial arts. Kung-Fu PandaDespite the fact thatPawsIt is set in Japan, and the former in China. There’s the notion that we’ve seen this film before.
Nonetheless, the new credo moving forward in the motion picture industry that’s chained at the hip to a streaming afterlife is that it’s better to bomb with a film on the big screen, rather than send it straight to streaming. It’s not enough to just be there. Fury PawsA major theatrical release elevates its patina and distinguishes itself in the home and beyond, as opposed if Paramount simply dropped it on Paramount+.
The families that spent their money on these items were the most successful.Fury Pawsand were polled by CinemaScore didn’t feel it was a waste of time giving the animated movie an A-. PostTrak was harsher with the general audience slamming it with a 66% negative and 49% recommend rating, while children younger than 12 liked it enough to rate it at 80% positive. Dad-leaning turnout at 51% guys, with 36% under 17 and a diversity spread of 40% Caucasian, 26% Latino and Hispanic, 18% Black, & 16% Asian/other. Fury PawsMost prominent in the West, Southwest.
Focus Features booked the eOne financed Mrs. Harris visits Parisat 980 theaters, and it’s grossing $1.9MFor the weekend, in 9th position with a $1.77K per theatre. This well-reviewed movie has been rated 93% by Rotten Tomatoes. It was watched 70% by women and 39% by people over 55. 87% of people over 25 also saw it. According to my sources, the movie is performing best along the coasts but not as well in other locations. Between Top Gun 2 Crawdads, Older female moviegoers who returned after the pandemic had many options. Diversity demos consisted of 65% Caucasian and 14% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Asian/other and 88% Black.
Netflix/AGBO’s Ryan Gosling/Chris Evans/Ana de Armas spy film Gray ManThis promotional play, which will be performed near 400 locations in a one-week period, is selling out quickly next to its competitors. Red NoticeDwayne-Gal Gadot and Ryan Reynolds’ action heist film, “Action Heist”, grossed between $1.25M to $1.5M in its initial weekend at 750 locations.
This was during a fall when the box office was beginning to get back on its feet, and more auditoriums were available because we didn’t have as many blockbusters around then as we do now. Gray ManIt is expected to do just Below $200KAccording to distribution sources, the answer is yes. Again, the streamer doesn’t care, nor do they report figures. It’s all about maintaining subscribers and possibly adding new ones after this $200M+ investment hits the service on Friday. This movie is currently at 52% on Rotten Tomatoes. But, you have to think that if this film was wide theatrical release it would bring in an additional $10M-20M in box office cash for exhibition. They’d gladly take it.
The 28th weekend box office is expected to bring in an estimated $1.5 billion. $130.2MFrom all titles. Next to weekend 28 in 2019, that’s +3%. Excellent.
CHART IS UPDATED EACH SUNDAY WITH NUMBERS
1.)Thor: Love and Thunder(Disney) 4,375 theaters, Fri.$13.8M Sat $18.4MSun $13.8M, 3-day $46M (-68%)/Total $233.27M /Wk 2
2.)Rise of Gru: Minions(Uni), 4,111 theatres (-316), Fri $8.1M (-44%), Sat $10.1MSun $7.69M, 3-day $26M (-44%), Total: $262.5M/Wk 3
3.)Where the Crawdads sing(Sony) 3,650 Theaters, Fri $7.2MSat $5.4MSun $4.3M, 3-day $17M/Wk 1
4.) Maverick is the Top Gun(Par) 3,292 theaters (-221) Fri $3.4M Sat $4.89MSun $3.7M, 3-day $12M(-23%), Total $617.96M/Wk 8
The older 40 crowd keeps on comin’: Anecdotally, the Simi Valley Studio Grill’s 7:45pm show in SoCal was packed on Friday night.
5.) Elvis(WB), 3.305 (-409) Theaters, Fri $2.3M Sat $3MSun $2.27M, 3-day $7.6M Total (-32%) $106.2M/Wk 4
6.)Paw of Fury(Par) 3 475 Theaters, Fri $2.4MSat $2.1MSun $1.75M, 3-day $6.25M/Wk 1
7.) The Black Phone(Uni) 2,271 theaters (-288) Fri $1.6M Sat $2.1MSun $1.58M, 3-day $5.3M (-32%)/Total $72M/Wk 4
8.) Jurassic World Dominion(Uni), 2,647 (-604) Theaters, Fri $1.4M Sat $2MSun $1.4M, 3-day $4.95M (-42%), Total $359.7M/Wk 6
9.) Mrs. Harris visits PariS(Foc. 980 theatres Fri $700KSat $680KSun $520K 3-day $1.9M/Wk 1
10.) Lightyear(Dis: 1,350 (-740), theatres, Fri $395K Sat $538KSun $367K, 3-day $1.3M (-58%), Total $115.4M/Wk 5
11.) Marcel the Shell with Shoes(A24), 153 theatres (+105), Fri $176,5K (+73%) Sat $221,4KSun $177,1K, 3-day $575,3K(+72%) Total $1.695M/Wk 4
Previous Friday AM Sony/3000 Pictures/Hello Sunshine’sWhere the Crawdads SingThe pandemic has made a strong start, especially for a female-skewing population. $2.3MThursday showtimes were at 3 p.m. in 3,150 theatres.
Again, previews aren’t always a perfect science for smaller movies at the box office, especially during Covid, but it’s interesting to note that the film came in not too far under the $2.5M that the Sandra Bullock-Channing Tatum romantic comedy adventure The Lost CityIt was shown in 3,400 theaters at 4 p.m. on Thursday, March 29th. After a SXSW premiere, the movie was able to open for $30.4M. Despite the fact that it attracted 61% of women, Lost City It had a wider appeal and a greater skewing than the others. Crawdads Here, which was forecast earlier in the week for $9M-$10M. We’ll see if those numbers go up.
Film Review: The Best-Selling Book Adaptation ‘Where The Crawdads Sing’
Disney/Marvel’sThor: Love and ThunderExpected to win the weekend once again with $50M in its 2nd go-round.
Where are the Crawdads Sing’s Thursday night audience loved it with a 93% positive audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 4.5-star PostTrak exit.
Another proof of its popularity is Where the Crawdads sing among its readers: The pic based on the Delia Owens book is blowing away several previews for movies based on Nicholas Sparks’ books, i.e. The Choice ($290K in 2016). The Longest Ride($625K in 2015. It’s proof, at least as of Thursday night, that the younger female demo hasn’t had a movie directly targeted at them for a while. Since January Where the Crawdads SingMore than 12M copies had been sold.
‘Thor: Love And Thunder’ Heading To $200M+ As Counter-Programming ‘Paws Of Fury’, ‘Crawdads Sing’ Open – Weekend Preview
Meanwhile, Paramount’s animated movieFury Pawsdidn’t see a robust start, with only $505KShowtimes that started at 3PM at 2,650 venues. The pic will open today at 3,475 locations. It is expected to gross approximately $10M. Universal/DreamWorks Animation’sThe Bad Guyssaw $1.15M in previews before a $23.95M opening in April, but that was at a time when there wasn’t an abundance of family fare on the marquee. There was a lot of competition: We won. Thor: Love and ThunderTheaters saw an $8.2M increase in Thursday’s box office, a drop of 7% from Wednesday’s $187.1M total. Then there’s Universal/Illumination Entertainment’s Minions: Rise of Gru This is still working its magic with $5.4M on Thursday, -11% since Wednesday for a total $236.5M in Week 2
In third was Paramount’s Maverick, Top Gun It earned $1.9M, which is -6% on Wednesday to reach $605.7M at the end of Week 7. It passedTransformers: Age of Extinction on Thursday to become Paramount’s top-grossing film of all time, with $1.2 billion worldwide.
Warner Bros.’ElvisOn Thursday, $1.58M was received. -12% lowered its total for Week 3 to $98.5M.
Universal/Blumhouse’sThe Black PhoneFor a total of $66.7M, the company earned $919K its third Thursday.