”The Secrets of Dumbledore“ is getting better reviews as a more direct Potter prequel, but is it too little, too late?
In 2016, “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” showed all the signs of fulfilling J.K. Rowling’s promise of a five-film series, earning positive reviews, a $74 million domestic opening and a theatrical run of $234 million domestic and $814 million worldwide.
But this Friday’s third installment — “Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore” — reflects a very different reality for Warner Bros.’ once-promising series. The new film must overcome the poor critical and audience reception for the 2018 sequel, “The Crimes of Grindelwald,” as well as the off-camera headlines that have surfaced over creator Rowling’s transphobic remarks and the personal struggles of former series star Johnny Depp and current cast member Ezra Miller.
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While it’s always difficult to quantify how off-camera scandals affect a film’s box office performance, the marketing for “Secrets of Dumbledore” seem to have acknowledged the challenges. Rowling’s name, once prominently featured in the trailers for the first two films, has been largely downplayed this time around. The trailers also prominently feature a new Gellert Grindelwald in Danish actor Mads Mikkelsen who replaced Depp amid the latter’s domestic abuse accusations (the subject of the star’s defamation trial against ex-wife Amber Heard began this week in Virginia).
So far, though, the studio’s efforts have had only limited success. Trackers are projecting “The Secrets of Dumbledore” to open in the $47-50 million range — which is well below “The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which debuted to $62 million and a theatrical run of $154.5 million domestic and $654.8 million worldwide. While those were not disastrous numbers for a $200 million tentpole, it was still the lowest grossing film in Warner and Rowling’s “Wizarding World” franchise.
“The presales have been up-and-down so far, and while ‘Potter’ fans are pretty tight-knit, ‘Fantastic Beasts’ is in a tough spot to draw anyone beyond that,” Boxoffice writer Shawn Robbins told . “It does have Easter weekend to boost turnout, but families may opt to see ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 2’ instead, and it will only have three weekends before ‘Doctor Strange 2’ takes over general audience attention.”
The marketing for “Secrets of Dumbledore” signals a shift in how Warner is selling “Fantastic Beasts” to fans. While the final trailer released this week teased further expansions of the Wizarding World with visits to Germany and Bhutan; the first two trailers that have played in theaters in recent months heavily emphasized the film’s return to Hogwarts and Jude Law’s performance as a younger Albus Dumbledore after the future headmaster was introduced in “The Crimes of Grindelwald.”
“Fantastic Beasts” has always straddled the line between world-building spinoff and “Harry Potter” prequel, but the trailers for “Secrets of Dumbledore” skew more toward the prequel elements of the series. And though the original “Beasts” characters, led by Eddie Redmayne’s Newt Scamander, are involved in much of the action, the biggest sell is for Jude Law’s Dumbledore — which makes a more explicit connection to the classic “Potter” saga that made billions in theaters.
Those connections to such beloved books and films could help “Secrets of Dumbledore” shake off the poor reception of its predecessor, and reviews have been somewhat better with a 59% Rotten Tomatoes score at time of writing compared to 34% for “Crimes of Grindelwald.”
The blockbuster’s $58 million overseas launch may also be reflective of the downward trend for “Fantastic Beasts.” The opening last weekend in Germany, for example, stood at $9.4 million. That is ahead of the $4.4 million launch in that country of Warner’s top 2021 grosser “Dune” and ahead of the $4.8 million start for “The Batman” last month, but below the $11.9 million that “Crimes of Grindewald” earned four years ago. And in the U.K., the film’s $7.7 million opening is on par with “Dune” but roughly half that of the $15.8 million British start for “Grindelwald.”
Of course, COVID-19’s ongoing effects mean that a drop in overseas grosses is likely baked in, especially with 54% of theaters in China closed amid new outbreaks. That raises the pressure on the film’s domestic launch this weekend, which may determine the studio’s willingness to extend the franchise.
With American families and general audiences alike showing more interest in moviegoing — as evidenced by the strong start of Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 2” last weekend — we will see whether the better reviews and Dumbledore-centric plot will be enough to get both “Potter” devotees and casual moviegoers to come back amidst an increasingly crowded April movie market. If the film’s North American totals fall substantially short of “Grindelwald,” a fourth “Fantastic Beasts” film will be in considerable jeopardy.