SATURDAY PM: In a Saturday matinee brawl at the box office between a Disney Pixar space ranger and Universal/Amblin dinosaurs, the prehistoric beasts win. Industry estimates show Jurassic World Dominion swallowed up Saturday overLightyear,$21.8M to $15.7M. Lightyearwill be lucky to hit $50M for the 3-day (these estimates do not come from Disney), if it has a robust Father’s Day as Dominionwill also steal the Friday-Sunday frame with $58.3M, -60% –not far from 2018 Fallen Kingdom‘s second weekend -58% decline. All in with the 4-day holiday, Dominion is looking at $67.6M. This will put the Coin Trevorrow directed, co-written and produced sixthJurassic title at $258.7M, 6% behind Fallen Kingdom‘s 11-day running cume.
Seriously, a mindboggling result here given the great diagnostics on Lightyear: 61% gave it a definite recommend toDominion‘s 57% in its opening weekend. PlusLightyearscored 85% positive toDominion‘s 73% in exits. We’ve heard grumbles that some of the die-hardToy Storyfans are put off by Chris Evans as the voice of Buzz Lightyear vs. franchise vet Tim Allen. However, the exits don’t necessarily show anything negative in that regard: 20% came out for Evans vs. 16% for Chris Pratt in Dominion‘s opening weekend. Forty-five percent of those polled bought tickets to Lightyearbecause it was part of a franchise they loved, which isn’t far from the 43% who bought tickets toDominionfor that same exact reason.
Also, let’s behold the unstoppable sound barrier breaking power of Paramount’sTop Gun: Maverick. The Tom Cruise pic’s fourth weekend stands at $43.1M, which is the third best fourth weekend ever for a major motion picture behind American Sniper($89.1M) andAvatar($50.1M). You could even argue it’s the second best for a movie in its fourth weekend, asAmerican Sniper went wide in weekend 4 after a platform holiday release. Heck, Top Gun 2‘s fourth weekend is even higher than Spider-Man: No Way Home which did $32.6M.Top Gun 2‘s ease here is a 17% dip from weekend 3 with an expected Sunday EOD running total of $465.3M after a $15.3M Saturday, +40% over Friday (just $400K shy of Lightyear).
We’ll have more updates in the AM.
SATURDAY AM: Well, this wasn’t suppose to happen. Disney’sLightyear,despite an A- CinemaScore and 4 stars/85% positive on PostTrak, is coming in way under its $70M-$85M projection, with a $51M-$55M 3-day weekend to Universal/Amblin’s second weekend ofJurassic World Dominion with $57.1M, -61%.Jurassic could even reach $66.3M through the four-day Juneteenth holiday.
What the hell happened here? Despite the lowest Rotten Tomatoes rating of theToy Story franchise at 77% Certified Fresh, it’s clear no one in great quantity is going to see the origin story of Buzz Lightyear. Understand that a Pixar movie and a Jurassic movie have played in close proximity to each other on the calendar before, and they both walked away with an embarrassment of riches. While we’ve mentioned that spinoffs always open lower than the core franchise films (take your pick:Fantastic Beasts vs. Harry Potter, Hobbs & Shaw vs. Fast & FuriousandBumblebee vs. Transformers), this could be a case of going to theToy Story well too soon, too fast, despite the fact that theater closures and a pandemic stood between now and the last Toy Story 4 three years ago.
Like Universal withDominion,it’s not like Disney didn’t marketLightyear,and if you comb through the top critics on Rotten Tomatoes, a majority of them seemed to enjoy it.
It’s clear the majority of Toy Story fans are not out in abundance. Remember that movie is an ensemble pic in all its toy characters, an appealing factor for all the parents that grew up with those icons like slinky dog and Mr. and Mrs. Potato Head. Also limiting audiences here withLightyear is that there’s not much for girls to hook their hats on; the outer space aspect makes this spinoff a big driver for boys, hence the turnout of more boys than girls.
Also, families in an inflation economy might be choosing their battles in a streaming laden marketplace: They’ll go see Jurassic on the big screen, which won’t be in the homes for a while, but might wait to see an nth Toy Story movie on Disney+.
While the box office economics on a $200M animated movie aren’t great from Disney’s POV, particularly in regards to the official and internal studio projections, and the Toy Story franchise itself, exhibition sees a different side of the coin after going through their own depression in 2020-21: $51M-$55M is a damn good opening. More reason for exhibitors to sing “We’re in The Money” from42nd Streetis the fact that the three-day weekend is ringing up an estimated $161.1M, 18% ahead of the same weekend in 2019, the benchmark year for determining whether the domestic box office has returned to healthy levels.
K-12 schools are off at 95% on Monday, so we’ll see if Lightyearcan find an extra set of jet fuel today through Monday.
Of those who turned out forLightyear,52% were men, 48% females. Some 61% of those who bought tickets were between 18-34. Men over 25 were dominant at 30%, giving the film its best grade of 87% positive. Females under 25 at 24% also gave it 87%. Females over 25 repped 24% of the audience and graded the Pixar film with an 85%. Men under 25 at 23% gave the film a 79% grade.
Diversity demos were 46% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic and Latino, 10% Black, and 11% Asian. Lightyear‘s best territories were in the West and Southwest, where eight of its top ten runs came from. Imax and PLF screens are contributing close to a quarter of the box office to date.
Throwing an extra monkey wrench into the Father’s Day weekend box office against the competition is the holdover power of Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick,the ultimate movie to take your dad to. The movie is eyeing a glorious 4th weekend of $40M, -23%, for a running total of $462.1M; just $37.9M from a half billion stateside.
In tenth place is Focus Features’ release of Jim Archer’s Sundance premiere Brian and Charlesin 279 locations. Pic is eyeing $197K for 3-days, $220K for 4 days for an theater average of $706.
1.)Jurassic World Dominion(Uni) 4,697 (+21) theaters, Fri $15.7M (-74%), 3-day $57.1M (-61%)/4-day $66.2M/Total $257.3M/Wk 2
2.)Lightyear(Dis) 4,255 theaters, Fri $20.7M/3-day $51M-$55M, 4-day est $59.8M/Wk 1
3.) Top Gun: Maverick(Par) 4,262 (-489) theaters, Fri$10.96M (-23%), 3-day $40M (-23%), 4-day $46.5M, Total $468.6M/Wk 4
4.)Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 2,465 (-880) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-23%), 3-day $4.2M (-19%), 4-day $4.4M, Total $405.2M/Wk 7
5.)Bob’s Burgers(20th/Dis) 1,350 (-1,255) theaters, Fri $349K (-51%), 3-day $1.18M (-51%), 4-day $1.3M, Total $30M/Wk 4
6.)The Bad Guys(Uni) 1,477 (-939) theaters, Fri $270K (-63%), 3-day $950K (-63%), 4-day $1.1M, Total $94.3M /Wk 9
7.)Everything, Everywhere All at Once(A24) 679 (-755) theaters, Fri $260K (-27%), 3-day $984K (-25%), 4-day $1.08M, Total $65M/Wk 13
8.)Downton Abbey – A New Era(Foc) 1,179 (-832) theaters, Fri $260K (-50%), 3-day $850K (-52%), 4-day $990K, Total: $42.3M/Wk 5
9.)Sonic the Hedgehog 2(Par) 439 (-628) theaters $53K, 3-day $200K (-73%), 4-day $240K, Total $190.4M/Wk 11
10.)Brian and Charles(Foc) 279 theaters, Fri $73K, 3-day $197K, 4-day $220K, Wk 1
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Friday is clearly in favor of Disney/Pixar’sLightyearwith $23M, that includes the $5.2M previews. However, there’s some suspense from Universal/Amblin’s Jurassic World Dominionpossibly sinking its teeth into the cartoon astronaut.
Current 3-day outlook forLightyearis $55M+ andJurassic World Dominionis at $53.4M, but there’s a projection that the latter cold clear $61M over 4-days sending its running total to $253M.
Still too early to say Lightyearis underperforming for Saturday matinees and Sunday Father’s Day business are its greatest strengths. At this early stage, we heard that hourlies are progressing better thanSonic the Hedgehog 2‘s during its first Friday in April. Should that momentum continue through the rest of this afternoon, then there’s a chanceLightyear gets to $60M.
In last night’s PostTrak exits,Lightyear notched four stars with overall audiences and a 62% recommend. The audience make-up was 67% general, 16% parents and 17% kids under 12. Parents gave the movie 4 1/2 stars whereas kids under 12 gave it 5 stars. Boys outnumbered girls, 61% to 39%. Of the general audience, 53% where men, 47% women.
FRIDAY AM: Pixar’s return to the big screen,Lightyear,did $5.2M between fan Wednesday previews and Thursday night shows, which is just under the $6.3M that Paramount’sSonic the Hedgehog 2did back in April over its first two days of previews.
Lightyear‘s Wednesday fan screenings started at 6PM, while Thursday showtimes began at 3PM. The sci-fi origin story of space ranger Buzz Lightyear is booked at 4,255 theaters and is expected to do between $70M-$85M. Global start is being eyed at $135M, with the overseas footprint being 43 material markets, representing 79% of international. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are at 80% certified fresh which is below the high 90%-100% range of the Toy Storymovies. If the family film is going to overindex, it boil down to Father’s Day traffic, not to mention, the Juneteenth holiday being celebrated on Monday. To date during the pandemic, Paramount’sSonic the Hedgehog 2owns the best opening for a family movie at $72.1M.
Lightyearis well ahead of the Tuesday pre-holiday previews of Universal/Illumination’s Sing 2($1.6M) and Disney’sEncanto($1.5M). Presales forLightyearwere estimated to be around $10M as of yesterday, just underSonic the Hedgehog 2‘s $12M-$14M.
Universal/Amblin’sJurassic World Dominionled all movies in regular release yesterday with $8.66M, -13% from Wednesday at 4,676. The movie will share Imax screens withLightyearthis weekend, but cede them in its third weekend fully to the Disney/Pixar film. First week’s take forDominionis $191.1M, 7% behind the first week ofJurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.
Paramount/Skydance’sTop Gun: Mavericksaw $6.2M yesterday, -6% from Wednesday for a third week of $78.7M and running total of $422.1M.
Disney/Marvel’sDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madnessdid an estimated $614K, for a $7.9M sixth week and $400.8M running total.
Universal/DreamWorks Animation’sThe Bad Guysgrossed $282K, -24%, for a $4M eighth week, and $93.2M running total.
Disney’sThe Bob’s Burgers Moviesmade an estimated $280K, for a $3.9M third week and running total of $28.7M.