{"id":21327,"date":"2021-09-19T10:21:58","date_gmt":"2021-09-19T04:51:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/centralrecorder.com\/will-the-uk-end-up-in-lockdown-again-the-3-crucial-pivot-points-to-watch-out-for\/"},"modified":"2021-09-19T10:23:12","modified_gmt":"2021-09-19T04:53:12","slug":"will-the-uk-be-locked-down-again-the-3-crucial-pivot-points-to-watch-out-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/centralrecorder.com\/will-the-uk-be-locked-down-again-the-3-crucial-pivot-points-to-watch-out-for\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the UK be locked down again? The 3 crucial ‘pivot points’ to watch out for"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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THE Prime Minister announced his Winter plan to keep Covid at bay yesterday.<\/p>\n

Britain is currently in a positive position in fighting the virus. Despite the fact that there are still many cases, deaths are relatively low and vaccines are working.<\/p>\n

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The country is currently enjoying the most relaxed rules in Europe, but this could change…<\/span>Credit: LNP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But there are a number of factors – or “pivot points” – that could see the country plunged back into lockdown, with stricter restrictions brought back in.<\/p>\n

As we move into the cooler months, there are three key things that will make or break the PM’s plan to keep rules as lax as they are…<\/p>\n

Hospital admissions<\/h3>\n

The Government laid out it’s Plan A, which largely relies on the vaccines.<\/p>\n

In just days, children aged 12 and over can get one doses of Covid vaccine. The rollout of booster jabs to over-50s will begin.<\/p>\n

This should be sufficient to stop the spread of the pandemic in the winter months.<\/p>\n

If the NHS is again overwhelmed by demands, Plan B will be quickly deployed.<\/p>\n

It is unclear what the criteria for this plan are, nor how serious it would require. However, the most likely explanation would be an increase in Covid inpatients.<\/p>\n

Every winter, the NHS has to deal with common respiratory illnesses. However, this year they could speed up the turnaround and bring hospitals to full capacity.<\/p>\n

Flu and other viruses were kept under control last winter due to Covid, the predominant virus in the country, and everyone being locked down.<\/p>\n

This year, however, we will be able to mix more freely and there won’t be any social distancing during the winter.<\/p>\n

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Hospital admissions are rising slowly, but aren’t a huge concern yet<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This means medics will be faced with both Covid and the classic winter illnesses, which will be back with a bang.<\/p>\n

The number of Covid patients in hospitals has risen to 7 per cent over six weeks.<\/p>\n

The pattern of increasing or decreasing in number is not likely to change. While it will undoubtedly put pressure on the NHS it shouldn’t be overwhelming and necessitating lockdown.<\/p>\n

Uncertainty over Covid infections<\/h3>\n

Covid cases are relatively high at the moment still – but haven’t risen despite social distancing being scrapped and a highly contagious variant.<\/p>\n

Many people are returning to work and schools are back.<\/p>\n

People are now allowed to hug and don’t have any legal requirement to wear masks. They also don’t have the obligation to keep their distance.<\/p>\n

It’s not clear what will happen as cooler weather approaches. People will be more likely to mix indoors, which could lead to an increase in spread of infectious diseases.<\/p>\n

All these changes together could cause an increase in infection rates, which would be a problem.<\/p>\n

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Vaccines are expected to be the workhorse of this winter<\/span>Credit: LNP<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

However the vaccines are very successful at preventing serious illness, and the majority of the country has now got immunity from the jabs.<\/p>\n

However, older adults who were vaccinated at the start of the year are experiencing less immunity.<\/p>\n

Even though children are less likely to become seriously ill and are more likely to spread the virus, they are still not vaccinated. They will be soon.<\/p>\n

Five million adults have not received a single dose of vaccine. This is the key group that needs to be protected.<\/p>\n

Plan B is required as immunity cannot stop the spread of infection and increases hospital admissions.<\/p>\n

Other viruses…<\/h3>\n

Covid is the most serious threat, but normal winter viruses will return.<\/p>\n

Because we have not been exposed to influenza viruses as much over the last year, our immunity will be lower.<\/p>\n

RSV, a virus that is already in high numbers, will cause some children to lose their immunity.<\/p>\n

It is the most common reason that children under five are admitted to hospital with respiratory illness.<\/p>\n

Boris Johnson announces Covid winter plan including mandatory masks and work from home order could return to stave off more lockdowns<\/span><\/div>\n

If flu follows the same pattern, the number of patients going onto wards with respiratory viruses could top Covid, more than 750-a-day.<\/p>\n

Prof Dame Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences, told the BBC<\/a> conditions are “ripe” for this.<\/p>\n

She said the Government needs to find a way to “maximise risk reduction while minimising the impacts on our lives”.<\/p>\n

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