CinemaBlend has taken a look at the films and performances that are most likely to be nominated for Oscars. Let’s look at a the Adapted Screenplay race.
Locked in
The uncontested favorite is easily Jane Campion’s The Power of the DogMany predict that the film will win Best Picture. It’s very possible that the legendary filmmaker could earn both screenplay and directing prizes on Oscar night.
CODAAfter exploding at Sundance in January, the award season has given Apple TV+ a second life. Clearly Apple’s robust campaign has paid off, as CODAA solid Best Picture candidate almost guarantees an Adapted Screenplay Nomination as part the package. It’s difficult to imagine West Side StoryThe film is not in the main cast despite the accolades Tony Kushner has received for updating the classic source material and the film’s overall status as a contender.
Likely Bets
DuneAt first glance, it may seem like a simple task. Mad Max Fury Road, The RevenantOr GravitySituation in which it is not able to screenplay but wins in technical categories. However, Dune’s faithful treatment of its classic source material has resulted in a solid amount of mentions for the script from critics groups and awards bodies. It also doesn’t hurt that 5-time Adapted Screenplay nominee Eric Roth is one of the writing credits.
Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My CarWe have had a lot of success with traction. With critics groups. These films are more difficult than most. It remains to be seen if they can be translated well to industry voters. Gyllenhaal could have the edge because of her name recognition and Netflix backing. If either of these two makes the cut at BAFTA, it’ll give a pretty compelling case to predict them.
Dark Horses
The Academy may choose to take a safer approach if it so desires. Tick, tick… Boom!You are right there. Though the film looks likely to receive a Best Picture nomination, it’s been having trouble racking up nominations in this category. In my view, it’s a toss-up between this one and the two mentioned above.
Joel Coen’s book is a good example of this. The Tragedy of Macbeth showcases lots of invention on the visual side, the dialogue is straight out of Shakespeare, so voters may feel that it’s not worth nominating. The attached screenwriting credits include Nicole Holofcener, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck.The Last Duel make a compelling case, but the film isn’t picking up any traction from awards voters, likely due to abysmal box office numbers. Rebecca Hall’s Passing, Guillermo Del Toro & Kim Morgan’s adaptation of Nightmare Alley Or even House Of Gucci which is available in other categories. There are many other possibilities.
CinemaBlend offers more categories breakdowns.