“I think for the next two weeks, we’re going to continue to see our case rates rise,”Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles Public Health Director, said this on Thursday. This statement was made even more worrying by the fact that the county had a record number daily pandemic cases on Thursday. The new record was 37,000 cases, which is 10,000 more than the previous record.
The increasing numbers have caused a series of cancellations, adaptations, postponements, and pauses that have had an impact on the Grammys, Sundance, and production. NCIS and the release of Marvel’s Morbius.
The second is a good example of how pandemic planning can go wrong. It’s been scheduled for July 31, 2020, March 19, 2021, October 8, 2021, January 2022 and now April. In fact, trying to predict the ebbs and flows of Covid has become a bit like early weather forecasting: We have a few days’ visibility, but after that it’s anyone’e guess.
“No one knows for how long the Covid-19 pandemic will endure or the enormity of its impact on California for years to come,” said President & CEO of the California Hospital Association Carmela Coyle on Saturday.
One thing is certain: DoesHowever, it is clear that Omicron will drive infections for many weeks to come.
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced Friday that the National Guard would be supporting testing operations in the state. On Saturday, Newsom loosened the state’s purse strings and announced a $2.7 billion emergency Covid spending package which is two parts prevention and one part intervention.
“Our proposed Covid-19 Emergency Response Package will support our testing capacity, accelerate vaccination and booster efforts, support frontline workers and health care systems and battle misinformation, with a focus on the hardest-hit communities,”In a statement, the governor said so.
Although officials are still promoting vaccination, testing is a key factor in slowing the spread according to Dr. Tony Napolitano of Wellstand. His company provides testing services for events, film, and TV productions.
“People who are going to be vaccinated, we’ve seen that curve flattening out,”Napolitano said. “I don’t think you can move the needle much on vaccination. So what’s left is social distancing, testing and masking, those type of things.”
Friday saw Los Angeles set a new daily case record of over 43,000. That’s up 100% in just four days thanks to an average 7-day test positivity rate that currently sits at 20.4%, which is just about the highest it’s ever been in the region. Another way to put it, one fifth of Angelenos are positive.
In the short term, high levels of community transmission will continue driving large daily case numbers. That will likely, in turn, fuel hospitalizations — which have also doubled in the past week — a few weeks down the line. The likelihood of more deaths from covid will increase in the future.
“My hope is that, you know, by the time we get to February, we’re on the downside of seeing that massive amount of community transmission,” Ferrer said Thursday. However, hospitalizations could be at their peak.
The ensemble forecast model compiled by the State of California now predicts that hospitalizations related to Covid will rise to 23,528 by February 6, a 153% increase over Friday’s number, 9,279 (the state does not post Covid data on weekends). A rise of 23,528 would surpass the January 6, 2021 pandemic record, which was 21,938 Omicron is considered less virulent that other strains. The answer may lie in the variant’s increased transmissibility.
The state’s 7-day average test positivity rate has been skyrocketing. Friday’s record high was 21.7%. That’s 60-plus percent higher than the peak of last winter’s surge.
The picture is grim across the country with 54% of Americans testing positive for HIV this week. According toJohns Hopkins University. This positivity rate was undoubtedly what fuelled the Record1,082,549 cases per day were reported by the university Monday.
New York City’s situation is worse than L.A.’s, with the daily average of more than 42,000 new cases on Thursday. According toThe New York Times. The test positivity rate This wasSurprisingly, 33% of people are positive. By comparison, the last winter’s high for daily cases was under 6,300.
L.A.’s test positivity rates have been declining in recent days. Today’s rate of 20.6% was the drop from 22.7% on Monday. Paradoxically, 45,584 cases were added to the county today. This is the fourth highest number of cases in the last week and almost triples the 16,269 cases reported Monday. The drop in test positives could be a sign of a decline in the number of cases to come, which could in turn signal the end of this current wave.
Many believe that South Africa is the country where Omicron first became known. According to a report by Omicron, the average number of cases has fallen 54% in the last few weeks. DataFrom the New York Times. There was still a shocking 7-day test positivity rate. 31% as of early January but it had been falling since mid-December, when it peaked at 36%, according to the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
However, a drop in cases does not mean the end of a surge. Even if cases in L.A. do fall from today’s record, the surge in cases may fuel record Covid-related hospitalizations in the weeks to come, given trends in hospitalizations tend to trail infections by about 2-3 weeks and the number of Covid patients in L.A. has just started to surge. Generally, deaths rise after hospitalizations increase by two more weeks.
According to the Times, South Africa has seen an increase of 174% in Covid-related deaths over the past 2 weeks. reported. Comparing South Africa with the U.S. is not an apples-to apples comparison.
South Africa’s population is younger than the rest of Africa, with an average age of 27. Median AgeThe average age of the population is 27 years. Median AgeThe average age in the U.S. for a 38-year-old is 38. That should give South Africa’s population more youthful immune protection. It’s also summer in that country, which is not typically conducive to the spread of flu-like viruses.
Conversely, South Africa’s vaccination rate It is not available27%, while the U.S. has vaccinated63% of its residents are HIV positive. South Africa is also home to the world’s biggest HIV epidemic, according to Bloomberg, with an estimated 8.2 million people infected with HIV. That’s about 13% of the country’s population. Other viruses, such as Covid, are more likely to infect immunocompromised individuals.
The U.K. is a country where pandemic patterns often prefigure those in the States. “There are tentative signs the number of new cases may have peaked,” According to Reuters, “with 146,390 new cases reported on Saturday, down from the record 218,724 recorded on Jan. 4.”
However, the recent spike in cases may be pushing Covid-related death higher with a 38% increase this week, Reuters reported.
The most recent national ensemble forecastThe CDC predicts that “the number of newly reported Covid-related deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks, with 19,700 to 30,500 new deaths likely reported in the week ending January 29, 2022.”The U.S. currently has a 7-day moving median of deaths at 1,513 per day, or 10,591 per semaine. This would indicate a national increase of 100-200% in Covid-related deaths this month.
The CDC has released an ensemble forecast predictsAbout 1,100 Covid-related weekly deaths in California were reported by the end the month. The current state average daily death is 45. That adds up over to 315 weekly deaths. The CDC predicts a threefold rise in deaths by month’s end.
But those numbers likely won’t mark the peak in Covid-related deaths for this surge. Even if cases have peaked, there are still 1-2 weeks worth of hospitalizations and deaths that will continue to rise for the next 2 weeks. This logic would place the state’s peak in deaths around mid-February.
Omicron’s increased transmissibility may explain why it could cause such a surge. Experts generally agree that Omicron is less powerful than the Delta variant. Again, Omicron’s increased transmissibility may be key.
While a smaller proportion of those infected may end up in the hospital due to Omicron, the variant seems to be filling hospitals anyway by infecting a massively greater proportion of people at one time (see this week’s record case numbers for evidence of that).
According to state data, most people infected with Covid are not yet vaccinated. Between December 13th, 2021 and December 19th, 2021, people who were not vaccinated were 10.1 times more likely than people who were fully vaccinated to contract Covid. Los Angeles County has over 3 million people who aren’t vaccinated.
Omicron is believed to be a transition from a pandemic state to an endemic one. In this state, Covid is less severe and more manageable. This is similar to the seasonal flu.
“Viruses generally evolve to become more contagious and less dangerous,”Napolitano from Wellstand.
He stated that viruses are designed to survive and reproduce.
“If you kill your host,”He stated, “you can’t reproduce and spread.”
“Covid will end by becoming endemic. It will end when everyone’s had it and can deal with it.”
Napolitano Points to porcine endogenous retrovirus.
“All pigs have this virus,”He also mentioned the possibility of infection by the pathogen. “It gets into the pig’s DNA and stays there. It doesn’t hurt them.”
Other developments may slow the current surge.
New therapeutics have come online, such as Pfizer’s Paxlovid and Merck’s Molnupiravir anti-viral pills, the former of which is ThoughtHospitalizations are expected to decrease by 88%. This could be a good sign for the return to normal. It is also good news for events such as the Super Bowl, Olympics, and Oscars.
There are many other factors and mass gatherings that can become super-spreader events.
Students all across the country are returning to school after winter break. Many colleges opt for distance learning in the current surge. However, the 600,000-student L.A. Unified school District will return to in-person instruction Tuesday.
In preparation for the return of in-person instruction, the district has implemented baseline testing. Megan Reilly, Interim Superintendent, reported last week that district’s test positivity rate has been around 13%.
LAUSD used a similar strategy to resume classes last August. The baseline testing done before the restart showed that 0.8% of test positives had been recorded. It was significantly lower than the countywide positivity rates of 3.5% on the first day of classes.
This year’s return will likely see more infections, but district-wide testing may help staunch outbreaks.
“The responsible thing to do it to test. There’s no way in the world that you’re going to get people together and not have positives,”Napolitano said. “Positivity will appear to go up in the short term. Longer term, they’re going to have lower transmission rates.”
All students and employees will be subject to weekly and baseline testing throughout January. Only unvaccinated students are required to take weekly testing beginning in February.
Another factor that could be an accelerant is Chinese New Year. This holiday runs from January 31 through February 15. The Chinese New Year, which runs from January 31 to February 15, is another potential accelerant. It coincides with the West’s winter holidays and is a time when friends and families gather to celebrate. In 2014, Chinese authorities predicted that the country’s citizens would make 3.6 billion trips tied to the holiday. Although travel is restricted in China this year, there will be gatherings and celebrations around the world.
Finally, there is “Deltacron.”It was found in Cypress this past week. It may be a new strain that combines elements of Omicron with Delta. Scientists think the strain is a result lab contamination and not a new super strain. It will be interesting to see what the future holds.