Here’s How the Oscars Will Choose the Best Picture Winner (Exclusive Demonstration)

FairVote joined forces with Oscar Voting to host a poll last week of the Oscar Best Picture Winners from the past 10 years. The poll was designed both to show which of the past decade’s winners is the favorite, and to illustrate how the Oscars’ ranked-choice (or preferential) system of vote counting works in the Best Picture category.

Now, with Oscar voting closing, here are these results. The simple answer is: Which film is your favourite? “Parasite.”

Bong Joon Ho’s South Korean film that won the Oscar in 2020, is by far the favorite of the 270 people who participated in the poll. Barry Jenkins’ “Moonlight”Following in this order, finished second. “Spotlight,” “The Shape of Water,” “12 Years a Slave,” “Argo,” “Nomadland,” “Birdman,” “The Artist”And last, “Green Book.”

And here’s how it worked – which is essentially the same way the system will work this week as a small team of Oscars accountants at PwC use ranked-choice voting to determine the winner in this year’s Best Picture category.

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That race, by the way, will likely be far closer than this one, which wasn’t competitive at all. (It should be added that this poll isn’t a scientific sampling, but is just the opinions of the people who took the poll by following links from FairVote and .)

The voters were asked to rank each film in the order they preferred. To win, a film needed to have 50% of the votes cast, plus one vote – which, with 270 voters, means it needed 136 votes.

Here’s How the Oscars Will Choose the Best Picture Winner (Exclusive Demonstration)
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Once all votes for the first place were tallied “Parasite”With more than three times the votes than its nearest competitor, it held a strong lead.

1. “Parasite” – 110 votes
2. “Moonlight” – 32
3. “The Shape of Water” – 23
4. “12 Years a Slave” – 21
5. “Spotlight” – 18
6. “Argo” – 17
7. “Nomadland” – 16
8. “Birdman” – 15
9. “The Artist” – 10
10. “Green Book” – 8

But, since the first place votes for “Parasite”It accounted for 41% of total ballots but could not be declared the winner. The count went to the second round. In this round, all votes for the film in last place were counted. “Green Book,”These votes were re-allocated and re-allocated at the film ranked 2nd on those ballots. This added one vote. “Spotlight”And “Nomadland,”Two “The Shape of Water”Three to “Argo,”The largest beneficiary of the “Green Book” elimination.

At the same moment, one vote was also moved into “inactive” category – which means that the voter put “Green Book” in first place on the ballot but didn’t rank any of the other contenders. Because the voter’s first and only choice was eliminated, that ballot was discarded and lost a chance at influencing the vote in subsequent rounds.

The updated leaderboard:

1. “Parasite” – 110
2. “Moonlight” – 32
3. “The Shape of Water” – 25
4. “12 Years a Slave” – 21
5. “Argo” – 20
6. “Spotlight” – 19
7. “Nomadland” – 17
8. “Birdman” – 15
9. “The Artist” – 10

Again, “Parasite”Sadly, it was less than 50% So “The Artist”The film’s 10 votes were shifted to the film that ranked second in its ballots. (If the film was already eliminated “Green Book”This was the second choice. The vote then moved to the third film.

This time, “Parasite”The greatest boost came from “The Artist”The ballots (4 votes) are followed by “Spotlight”And “12 Years a Slave”(2) Each vote “Nomadland”And “Birdman”Each received a single vote. “Moonlight,” “The Shape of Water”And “Argo” didn’t pick up any. Two new votes “Spotlight”They were enough to push it beyond “Argo” into fifth place.

1. “Parasite” – 114
2. “Moonlight” – 32
3. “The Shape of Water” – 25
4. “12 Years a Slave” – 23
5. “Spotlight” – 21
6. “Argo” – 20
7. “Nomadland” – 18
8. “Birdman” – 16

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With “Parasite”Now, 42% of the vote is claimed, but not enough to get 50% “Birdman”voted out and 16 votes were redistributed. This time, “Spotlight”The biggest boost came from getting three more votes and passing “12 Years a Slave”To claim the fourth place.

1. “Parasite” – 116
2. “Moonlight” – 34
3. “The Shape of Water” – 27
4. “Spotlight” – 24
5. “12 Years a Slave” – 23
6. “Argo” – 22
7. “Nomadland” – 20

Three other ballots were then tossed because they did not contain any films still in competition. “Parasite”Although it increased to 46%, it still fell short of the magic number that would win the race. “Nomadland”was rescinded and 20 ballots were redistributed. “Moonlight”Five new votes “Nomadland” voters, “Parasite”And “Spotlight”Got four “The Shape of Water”And “12 Years a Slave”You have two “Argo” didn’t get any.

1. “Parasite” – 120
2. “Moonlight” – 39
3. “The Shape of Water” – 29
4. “Spotlight” – 28
5. “12 Years a Slave” – 25
6. “Argo” – 22

With “Parasite”It was just below 50% “Argo”was removed, and the 22 ballots were redistributed. “Parasite”It was moved to 47% by three of them, but “Spotlight”Got seven and passed “The Shape of Water”For third place “12 Years a Slave”Six more votes were received and nearly caught “Shape of Water,”But it was not enough and the film was rescinded.

1. “Parasite” – 123
2. “Moonlight” – 40
3. “Spotlight” – 35
4. “The Shape of Water” – 32
5. “12 Years a Slave” – 31

With nine additional votes from the “12 Years a Slave” ballots, “Spotlight”Moved into a tied for second place “Moonlight,”This only received four votes from The “Slave” ballots. “Parasite,”The film received seven more votes, and reached 50%. A film must pass 50%. It cannot just reach it. So another round was necessary. “The Shape of Water”Redistributed.

1. “Parasite” – 130
2. (tie) “Moonlight,” “Spotlight” – 44
4. “The Shape of Water” – 40

After eight rounds, it was time to say goodbye. “Parasite”We received 19 more votes from the “Shape of Water”To claim victory, ballots were blown past the 50% mark. This is the point at which you can start to “Inactive votes” total was up to 6.8%, meaning that 18 voters had cast ballots that didn’t include “Parasite,” “Moonlight”Or “Spotlight”All of them.

1. “Parasite” – 149
2. “Moonlight” – 54
3. “Spotlight” – 49

Best Picture poll results
FairVote

In the end “Parasite”More than two-thirds of its votes were received, 110 votes out of 149 from the initial count of first-place vote. It picked up a steady stream of additional votes from every eliminated film except “Green Book,”While “Moonlight”Each film received additional votes except for one “Green Book”And “The Artist.”

This was the huge first lead “Parasite” guaranteed that the outcome was never in doubt, but it’s worth noting that “Spotlight”The biggest jump was made by any film with a Round 8 total almost three times greater than the Round 1 total. The consensus reached in a race that was longer and more intense with a dominant favorite is rare. “Spotlight”Crafting could have been vital.

This is how it works: You can still vote in the poll,That will not change the facts, but it will affect the numbers. “Parasite”The winner is (Unless 300 people suddenly vote for him). “Green Book.”)

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